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WHAT REMAINS TO BE

Palmares An article circulating on the internet with one of the longest titles for a story where he is developing on the so-called punishment long term than the Rwandan leadership had envisioned for the Congolese General Laurent Nkunda. While acknowledging that the charisma of the man is new in the panorama of the turbulent Great Lakes region, the paper believes, however, Kinshasa, with the latest decision of the CSR to decline jurisdiction, the last swansong was sung. Nkunda was the victim of a misreading of history. But it's too early to say such a thing. Far from being "crushed by the juggernaut of the new rapprochement between Kigali and Kinshasa, from his prison, Nkunda will reveal futility, the limit, I would say the futility of this approximation.


I do not have time to analyze as meticulous as I would like, for three days trying to find time to write this posting, without success. The article itself follows the logic of typical reactions when the spokes Kabiles feels he completely loses his hand on Kivu. By saying that Kagame is correct in its decision to deal with Nkunda such injustice, such contempt for human rights, the paper hopes to contribute to Kinshasa exacerbate the division between the Tutsi. This is unlikely today, especially when they go all obvious from what has become famous Inkontanyi, police predator regime of Kin, to enrich a clique reduced. Actually more Kagame Nkunda keeps cool for Kabila, Kabila becomes stronger relative to its sponsor. And about the "steamroller" is neither roll nor compressor that also believes in the Kin. The proof is in fact Kagame temporizes with Nkunda just to see where it leads, this roll! Politico-diplomatic situation between Kigs and Kin is far from clear, it is the naivety to believe any of Kinshasa.


Take for example the question of the FDLR. We do not talk most common language between Kigs and Kin. While James Kabarebe maintains that their number is very important - of course he seeks a way back to the DRC with his men rubber boots Joseph Kabila would fatigue. Didier Etumba brandished their film and photographs to support their return to Rwanda by saying loud and clear that 95% of these genocidal no longer existed. The theater of Goma, you'll recall, is when Kamerhe was being forced to resign. So James Kabarebe would return to the DRC but his former allies have caught a cold! They do not want more transactions concocted by the Generalissimo. We do not want more of him on the field. This must be painful for him a failure because in the eyes of the Rwandan people and all his supporters, he has failed in its mission to unearth the constant threat of genocide.


Let's see what became of his friends cndp false. It seems that the positions Gafisi have won for them within the realm of ridiculous. But laughter is good for physical health and moral. Nzabirinda, Administrator of the territory at Shek-Banza in Bas-Congo, Bertha Masisi, Kanyamphura the Isle of Idjwi etc ... We are waiting to see the fate of Kambasu and Gafisi. Joseph Kabila continued, meanwhile wiping defeats in its effort to attract senior officers in Kinshasa. The latest refusal to date is that of Colonel Faustin. That may not be Kabarebe Numbi, because you know, it is still under arrest, guarded by the president's personal guard. Maybe it can begin to see shots from everywhere. The duo Kabarebe Numbi and anyway would not be afraid to mount a coup if they saw an opportunity. While Numbi is monitored Kabarebe trying by all means to succeed (the steamroller!) To open a consulate of Rwanda in Katanga, in the shi. Expansion of business requires! They say that with his brother and a son Makabuza, it controls already minerals, timber and private aviation Goma. Next step: the capital of copper, cobalt and uranium. The fact that modern armed affairs just as the guy traded in London and New York.


Another detail to explore the attitude of two Heads of State and Kin Kigs face elections. I have to go but think about what inspires the spokes of the famous international community today. Maybe the Chinese will buy him the election this time with some five trails in the highlands of hamal Mulenge or in the high savanna and grasslands of Masisi ... When the great Afande to Kigs, it became a bit difficult to follow his speeches, yet there is so little, showed some consistency unfortunately rare these days. He can not ignore the discomfort of the population. The portion of Jacob Zuma in Kampala to Kigali nonstop will probably eroded any hope to seek his help if Kayumba etc.. Do not divide the Tutsis inside and outside borders. It is fatal! What remains to do is catch up on that front there is the only investment that will stabilize the region.

Yellowoods Fingerboards

WHERE ARE WE?

few weeks ago only the BBC and Reuters almost in stealth, have talked about the passage of the President of the Congolese National Assembly in Tehran. Only one photo where the protagonists appeared rather embarrassed, looking a bit uncomfortable illustrated the news. We know that these are negotiations for the sale of uranium to the Congolese man most feared by the West in the Middle East. Is that uranium, subject to negotiation with someone who treats the nuclear threat as a personal matter is very embarrassing subject. The approach, however, not surprising since we know the ways of Joseph Kabila. It would perhaps impress on the Western model of his Iranian counterpart. But I think the urgency not seen perhaps as far. It could be an issue or barter-uranium weapons, or just a cash sale, JKK funds and the pockets of his cronies are then bottomless. And the business part comes when we begin to ask him to produce an electoral calendar, for example. On the thorny issue of the electoral calendar - you do not really know which municipal blocked since 2006-the next general election, plus the urgent proof that he wants to give the world the evidence of peace restored to the Est. Hence the eagerness to see MONUC leave.

assurance of peace in the East to JKK is equal to the inability to return to Rwanda in the DRC. The FDLR is the residual army as we already know is not a problem for him. So is peace! My eye as the kids say. Just because the internal political dysfunctions that caused the DRC war are still integers. And the forces that have challenged more than ever sharp. JKK is happy to have turned into jackasses Kigs its sponsors. He can even tell them when they NIET him have some tempting bait as the following situation. A Kigs Kayumba Nyamwasa was accused of being behind the unrest in which everyone looked lately. When they arrested the peasants who threw grenades Kig, it was noted that their contacts and orders came from the DRC. After use of torture, they revealed the name of their sponsor, which in turn proved to be an FDLR brigade of Colonel Padiri, charged with protecting the city of Goma. What to do? Surely the RDF or the Rwandan security services had to try to get the type via Ntaganda which in turn has not had the courage to obey the orders of his boss across the border. JKK has decided to protect the rapidly Kin, also in the effort not to give any excuse to infiltrate his sponsors in the DRC.

The Chief of the RDF would have even asked JKK to send him but in vain! Besides, how and what would that have been used since the hierarchy in Rwanda had already charged grenades Kayumba Nyamwasa? Is not that JKK is rubbing his hands, seeing the gradual failure of James Kabarebe in all this? Is not he rubs his hands by touching evidence that he has managed to reduce the leadership of a division Kigs so vain? Now it seems that these people want Jacob Zuma continue Kayumba to return to Rwanda. But then they also lost ground because you will recall, the head of the RDF has spent a few hours at the airport RSA examination because of mandates English. I think these terms are unfounded for the simple reason that they emanate from the great defenders of the FDLR and revisionism about the Rwandan genocide. But the fact that the RSA has ventured this shows that relations between the two leaderships are not rosy. This being so, the boss of RDF tried going through his "godson" JKK that it intervene with Zuma about it! Imagine you just where they stand. It seems he had promised in exchange for this intervention, the extradition of Laurent Nkunda, but unfortunately for the boss, "the godson" no longer believed his promises. It goes even further. Given the complicity that exists between the boss of the RDF and John Numbi on the complexities of the conflict in the East and the many unsuccessful operations, JKK is ready to be replaced by General John Numbi Olenga (it remains in Katanga for this stuff ). That follows the meanders of the DRC are amazingly JKK events, twists and turns. We will try to continue to be a watchful eye on all this. But between us and by the way, how the Tutsi Kigs may believe that the division will take them somewhere? The division always means disintegration, we'll see which side.

Brent Everett A Bottom

THE MARRIAGE BETWEEN CHINA AND THE TEARS IN DRC

THIS COMES FROM ASIA TIMES !!!!!

China has a Congo copper headache
By Peter Lee

An agreement Between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and China in 2008 to swap 10 million tons of copper ore for U.S. $ 9 trillion worth of wealth and civic infrastructure Looked like a genuine win-win.

Goal Ever Since The International Monetary Fund (IMF) demanded renegotiation of the deal in May 2009, China and the DRC have been on a roller-coaster ride of risk. Today, Beijing anxiously eyes a growing list of major dysfunctional problems - and a $100 million adverse judgment in a Hong Kong court - that could derail the "deal of the century".

The deal, as originally conceived, cannily addressed three major issues.

The first was China 's desire to make a big resource play and secure a source of copper and cobalt in Africa .

The second was DRC President Joseph Kabila's need to demonstrate
progress on the reconstruction of his country, shattered by two decades of war that claimed as many as five million civilian lives, to increasingly dissatisfied voters as the 2010 presidential elections approached.

The third was onerous indebtedness, which forced the DRC to concentrate on the IMF's priorities of debt repayment and fiscal and financial reform instead of its own desperate need for social and infrastructure spending.

The Chinese deal was, in its essence, barter. The state-owned Export-Import Bank of China (China Eximbank) would fund the opening of a copper mine in the DRC's Katanga province for $3 billion and underwrite $6 billion of infrastructure projects, paid in two tranches. The bank would be repaid using profits of Sicomines, a joint venture between the DRC and China that would receive the rights to extract 10 million tonnes of copper and 600,000 tonnes of cobalt reserves from the Katanga mine.

Undoubtedly, the deal was a potential bonanza for China . In addition, Chinese companies might well have hoped to take advantage of the DRC government by manipulating the contracting process to provide the capacity-challenged and corruption-prone nation with overpriced infrastructure.

An expert on the DRC's developmental challenges told Asia Times Online he was pessimistic about what might be delivered. "I'm not sure what to expect, beyond a bit of new pavement on some old roads. I 'trust' a corrupt, but efficient government like Angola to squeeze value out of Chinese and Western companies. Not the DRC."

Nevertheless, for China as well the deal represented a remarkable leap of faith. At the time when the DRC was a financial, political and economic basket case, China agreed to put $6 billion into the country up front in the first four years before the mine - which would enter into production at 2014 at the earliest - had produced a pound of copper.

To its discredit, the West's response to news of the agreement was anger compounded by fear and jealousy. Kabila conveyed his resentment of this response in an interview with the New York Times: [1]

No sooner had the agreement been praised in Congo as a desperately needed lifeline than Congo's Western allies started griping that the Chinese got a sweetheart deal and began pressing Mr Kabila to revise the terms.

"What revolted me was the fact that there was resistance to this agreement and there was no counterproposal, " Mr Kabila said.

The West expressed its displeasure in a concrete way through the most effective avenue available to it - the IMF.

The IMF dominates the DRC's international economic activity through its administration of a debt workout process for so-called HIPC or "Highly Indebted Poor Countries".

The HIPC workout has been criticized as a coercive and self-serving exercise designed primarily to protect the interests of Western sovereign creditors who over-lent to developing countries.

To prevent a wave of national defaults, and avoid the need for creditors to immediately write off foreign debt that impoverished borrowers are unable to service, the IMF interposes itself to set fiscal and structural reform obligations in return for bridge financing and the employment of its good offices to effect eventual cancelation of debts by the Paris Club of the largest Western holders of bad national debt.

Somewhat absurdly, the DRC, even in the depths of the global recession in 2009, was making more than $170 million in interest payments to stay in the good graces of the IMF.

This self-sacrifice is necessary so that the IMF will eventually certify to the Paris Club creditors that their $6 billion share of the DRC's $11 billion foreign debt is worthy of being written off. The debt was actually incurred by the kleptocratic predecessor regime of Mobuto Sesi Seko, who fled the country in 1997 when it was still called Zaire ; he died the same year.

It would appear that the IMF relishes the leverage it holds over the DRC by virtue of its control of the country's financial lifeline to the outside world, and resented the idea that the DRC could, through an ore-for-infrastruct ure swap, pursue its developmental goals in disregard of the priorities of the IMF and its Western backers.

In Le Monde diplomatique, journalist Colette Braeckman observed that "the institution headed by Mr Dominique Strauss-Kahn [the IMF] appears not to appreciate barter". [2]

She quoted Wu Zexian, the Chinese ambassador to the DRC, who dismissed the IMF's concerns about increased indebtedness:

"We have asked only one guarantee: that the state, where existing fields would not keep commitments, would allow us to undertake further exploration. We explained it in perfect French. The risks would be taken by China Eximbank, and alone ... "

Nevertheless, the IMF declared that the China deal increased the DRC's potential foreign debt exposure to an unacceptable level and demanded that it be reduced in size. The IMF also made it clear that without a reduction in the deal it would not provide the necessary endorsements to the "Paris Club" that were needed to write off the DRC's debt.

After a brief show of defiance, the DRC crumbled, agreeing to defer the second $3 billion infrastructure tranche.

In this context, it is interesting to note that the reported scope of the reserves ceded to China under the deal is apparently unchanged: it is still 10 million tonnes of copper and 600,000 tonnes of cobalt. It could be argued that the Chinese obligations have been reduced by 33%, and the infrastructure benefits to the Congo reduced by 50%, while China still gets access to mineral reserves worth over $50 billion - not exactly a triumph of negotiating by the IMF on behalf of the DRC, if this is the actual state of play of the revised agreement.

The IMF's judgment in opposing the China deal in its original scope is open to question.

If the Congo was poised for free-market takeoff, the China deal could be criticized for crowding out development of the DRC's copper and cobalt reserves by eager private companies ready to risk their capital in a free market environment.

But this was manifestly not the case.

As the DRC's point man for mineral negotiations, Victor Kasongo, put it [3]:

"If China wants to dominate the world, it's not our business to stop them," Kasongo continues. "Who are we to close the door to them when we don't have water or electricity? If China doesn't come [to Congo ], we're in big sh*t."

It was widely believed that the IMF was simply taking sides with the West in the geopolitical tussle with China in Africa . Ghana Business News reported [4]:

The IMF's opposition to the deal represents an attempt by the West to counter China 's investments in Africa , according to Gregory Mthembu-Salter of the South African Institute of International Affairs. "It's a confrontation between the Western donors and China in Congo ," he said in a June 2 interview. "The fall guy in this will be the Congolese."

In some quarters there were also suspicions that the IMF's campaign against the China deal was part of an effort to coerce the DRC into abandoning an initiative to which the West was violently opposed: the renegotiation of resource contracts concluded during the chaotic transitional period before the first DRC presidential election in 2006.

The most important contract at issue was for the immense copper mine at Tenke Fungurume, with reserves roughly twice the size of those ceded to the Chinese project.

During negotiations with the transitional regime in 2005, Western owners achieved enormous reductions in the entry fees and shares they had to set aside for the local partner under the original agreement concluded in 1996.

In 2005, the DRC negotiators on the Tenke Fungurume project blithely agreed to reduce the fee from $250 million to $50 million (which was an additional payment to $50 million that a predecessor company paid in 1997), and reduce their country's share from 45% to 17.5%. The reduction in share by the DRC represented the surrender of revenues from 5 million tonnes of copper - worth at least $30 billion - over the life of the mine.

By contrast, the 2008 Chinese deal promised a signing bonus of $350 million and a 32% share going to the DRC side, which included the parastatal mining company Gecamines and a somewhat mysterious local partner.

The appearance of impropriety was, if anything, exacerbated by the participation of the US government in the Tenke Fungurume talks.

The World Bank had mandated a moratorium on new mineral contract negotiations pending a legal review of existing contracts and Tenke Fungurume was apparently flagged as problematic.

The US government apparently ignored the ban. Indeed, it looks like the US government helped push through a renegotiated deal with the transitional regime in order to obtain more favorable terms, and a more solid legal footing than the project, as a relic of the previous dictatorship, originally possessed.

At the DRC's request, the Carter Center reviewed the 2005 minerals contract mess and painted a dispiriting picture of greed, opportunism, and apparent self-dealing at the expense of one of the poorest countries on earth: [5]

Nevertheless, according to information from Congolese and international sources, the US Embassy lobbied for the DRC government to sign the agreement with Phelps Dodge, the US mining company.

There are several reports that the embassy's political officer and temporary Charge d'Affairs was personally engaged in urging the President's office to sign. At the very least, there was no indication at any time that the US was concerned with the request for a moratorium. In fact, the ICG's [International Crisis Group's] July 2007 report notes that US officials attended a signing party hosted by Phelps Dodge upon conclusion of its contract, demonstrating unambiguous disregard for the moratorium.

There's more:

The same official that is said to have actively lobbied for Phelps Dodge retired from the State Department in 2006. In September of that same year, she became "Vice-President for Government Relations, Africa " for Phelps Dodge, whose only major African interest is Tenke Fungurume. This official's important role at the US embassy and the timing of the move have fueled suspicion on the part of DRC government officials and others regarding the interests of Western governments.

Despite icts dismal origin and calls to delay Commitments Until The pending contract reviews Were Completed, The Tenke Fungurume Deal Received A Further seal of approval "in The Forms of sizable Investments from Western public Financial Institutions - $ 250 million from the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation, 100 million euros (U.S. $ 136 million at today's rate) From The European Investment Bank and Another $ 100 million from The African Development Bank.

Message For Bridal Shower

FINISH THE CONFUSION ON BUT LOTS MORE

From the vultures forever. You've seen or you will circulate on the net these days a large dose or confusion about the stability of the DRC or the Great Lakes region in general. Rwanda, which I do not like talking about this blog because it is the DRC that interests me, just give give his side once again to the vultures. They are enjoying practically the patron self-proclaimed revisionist Harmon Snow FDLR improvised at the last reporter for a variety of publications including Africa Confidential, and the tide of Congolese forums that circulates all of this, etc ... Who can blame them? They all work for their stomachs. Basically, the vultures are fond of confusion, especially confusion on the ground. They must always show that there are problems to keep their wretched spots diggers of our destiny.

They begin the windfall this time ? Or why I say that Rwanda is ready once again for his side's attacks stunts? I can at least pin a reason: there are internal divisions within the political leadership, military and security in Rwanda because the file Laurent Nkunda. True, from an observatory outside you can support this thesis. We may well suppose, as I do on this blog since January 2009 that unfairly keep Laurent Nkunda is not a cakewalk, even for James Kabarebe and Paul Kagame himself. Some vultures are going to argue that James Kabarebe has already expressed his willingness to resign, proof for me that man would eventually recognized the historical and monumental mistake he has committed. His boss refused until it has resolved the situation. In my opinion, the situation became more embarrassing that the UN report is supposed to have triggered the arrest of General Congolese Rwandans. I said several times here that the solution was and remains the liberation of Nkunda although it will appear as a challenge that the vultures want and seek.


The release of General Nkunda remains as the only way for Rwanda to end another confusion the vultures to maintain their own benefit, namely the tendency to put in the same basket the ambitions of the RPF and the cause of the CNDP. For the ideologues of the instability in the Great Lakes, it is important to consider both as a single ambition. Rwanda and playing the game of Kabila did confirm that. Now it is indispensable to know the cause of Laurent Nkunda and the CNDP is Congolese and has nothing to do with the ambitions of the RPF. Politically, the DRC peace process must come from the East, but it must be a first step to restoring some order to open the country to a true development. It is Nkunda and that seeks both Kinshasa and Kigali, although it must be understood that Nkunda and his movement have much to do. Kagame's henchmen in the affairs of the DRC have demonstrated the limits of their knowledge of the Congolese problem. Understandably, they do not know the culture nor the dying and, in addition, they are like the plutocrats in Kinshasa, just interested in money.


Changing people is not as over the waters so much that it is decided by people supposed to be rational. Kigali, Kinshasa and the vultures have come to understand that the Tutsi Congolese law, the duty and the rational capacity to contribute to the restoration of the DRC. Only the best restaurants to open opportunities to develop the region. That's what vultures do not want. And this restaurant has nothing to do with the ambitions of the RPF. It's entirely a cause which affects the Congolese Rwanda as for regional raisions. And the status quo can not last for long. Anything could erupt at any time. The CNDP is perfectly prepared for this eventuality. I never cease to remind you on this blog should not believe rumors spread that the vultures. They force attribute to Ntaganda is pure propaganda. Indeed that is Zimurinda, Nsengiyumva Ngaruye and Kabundi face Makenga, Faustin, Micho, Mboneza, Birinda, Jaguar, and others who Mulomba forgive me for not knowing their names, although I have long dreamed of the day where I could finally shake hands with each one until the last soldier. However, it is still possible to avoid this explosion by presenting the political process on the train. This means the policy of peace negotiations between Kabila and Nkunda. Kabarebe has nothing to do with it. His whole arsenal of tricks is empty. And we must act quickly because the network supporting the genocide is more active than ever and continue to fly for predators that Rwanda unjustly detains the major player of the puzzle eastern DRC. I must correct tests that my students come to present, but we continue to talk about all this. See you and good weekend to all.